January 03, 2012
Cutting Troops in a Time of War?
In a recent conversation about the pending cuts to the number of Active Duty Troops, a reader asked, "but with the end of the War in Iraq, aren't these 'overflow' Soldiers unnecessary?" (I'm paraphrasing.) The base of the discussion is that the current Administration is cutting 49,000 Soldiers from the Active duty Army. The question is whether this is a responsible thing to do, while we continue our War in Afghanistan, or if the end of the War in Iraq, and the Administration's plan to "end" the War in Afghanistan means that these Troops are no longer needed and hence can be thrown into the unemployment lines.
Some would argue that these aren't wars at all, that the Administration calls them "Overseas Contingency Operations," but to the Troops on the Ground, getting shot at, political correctness does not translate into a change of reality. Nevertheless, we've been at war for 10 years, and one would think that we've increased the size of Our Military since the attacks of 9/11/01. And we did, by a little bit, sorta, but most of the increase in Troops serving every day of the week has been by activating units and members of the National Guard and Reserves. Other shortfalls in manning were filled by sending in Air Force or Navy Troops to back-fill the Army and Marines, in ground operations, in places that Navy and Air Force personnel wouldn't normally be assigned.
Why did that happen? Well, initially, the Bush Administration did not believe that we would need a long term presence in either Iraq or Afghanistan. The original plan was to get in, defeat the enemy, and get out, leaving the two Nations with a new government, elected by the people, to figure out their own role in the world. It was part of his political platform to avoid "Nation Building," that his predecessor was known for in places like Bosnia, Kosovo, Haiti, and Somalia. By the time the Administration came around to the realization that without the stability of an effective government, the countries would fall into civil war, that decades of oppression had left these two Nations with a lack of leaders that understood effective government, the political climate in the US had changed from unilateral support following 9/11, to bitter partisan bickering. There was no political will to add Troops to the Military.
The National Guard and Reserves were designed as a force to be ready to step up in the short term to balance a smaller Active Duty force. During World War II, there were "National Guard" Troops who served their entire enlistments on Active Duty, but there was also a draft to fill every set of boots the factories could produce. Post-9/11 the National Guard and Reserves were put into regular rotation, sometimes back-filling US missions in Bosnia or Kosovo or the Sinai normally filled by Active Duty Troops, so those Troops could be assigned combat duty in Iraq or Afghanistan. And sometimes being ordered to the Combat Zones themselves. The Reserve forces proved themselves, even when placed in command of Active Duty Troops.
Though politicians on the left side of the aisle said the Troops were stretched too thin to support the Petraeus Plan in Iraq in 2007, i.e. "The Surge," the President did not request and Congress did not approve significantly more billets to the Active Duty rolls. Nevertheless, by this point in the Wars, it was clear to everyone that it wasn't going to be a short war, though none were actually saying that out loud. The Military was still smaller than it was when Clinton was inaugurated, in peacetime. It was still based on Clinton's policy of a fighting a 1+1 war, i.e. that if the United States found itself in two wars, it could fight and win one, and not lose the other one, until the forces of the first were applied to it, to win it.
When America found itself in two wars, it should have added Troops to the Army and Marines. Had this been a Naval War, that would have added a new component, but Iraq has only a little coast, and Afghanistan has none. Aside from aircraft carrier based aviation, there was little role for the Navy. And due to Air Superiority, the Air Force's role was primarily transportation and Ground Attack/Ground Forces Support. These wars were primarily an Army Mission, which the Marines also did well. It was Ground Combat.
So, when new billets were added to the Army and Marines, they were taken away from the Air Force and Navy. In fact, despite the additions to the Army and Marines, and Coast Guard post 9/11, the total size of the Military had still shrunk from 2005 to 2007. (See table 1.06, DoD below)
But the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars were also two very different wars. The Taliban government in Afghanistan was defeated quickly by Special Operations, supported by Air Force Bombers, whereas the Ba'athist government of Saddam's Iraq was defeated by Conventional Forces, Tank Divisions, and Infantry, supported by Air Force Bombers and Fighters. Afghanistan could not have been more perfect for an Unconventional (Special Operations) War. The Iraq War included more Special Operations Warriors than did the Afghanistan War, but it was a Conventional War, with SF and SeALs working special missions, rather than as the main force.
The aspect of Nation Building was so far out of the mix, that the manual had to be re-written, before it could be implemented. In fact the concept of Counter-Insurgency or COIN goes so far beyond Nation Building, that it has to be considered a component of it. Bush avoided the term itself though, because he had campaigned against it. General Petraeus' new manual incorporated the realities on the ground, including those currently being proven by other Commanders of various levels of command. COIN was developed as a total package, recognizing the need to secure villages, with locals that had a stake in it, to develop local economies, and teach good governance to leaders, as well as literacy to their kids. It drew on the abilities of Soldiers, as well as the few civilians willing to risk a combat zone to make a difference.
As of 30 Sep 2009, The Army had 44,000 Troops in support of Afghanistan and 111,000 in support of Iraq, including Reserves and National Guard, and including those stationed in places like Kuwait and Qatar. Nearly 1/4th of the Navy was at sea, leaving 230,000 to repair and prepare their ships, and train to be or advance as Sailors. The Marines had sent 6,581 along with them, around the world. They had sent 11,700 to Iraq and 10,700 to Afghanistan.
We still had 52,658 Troops stationed in Germany, 9,199 in the UK, and 35,965 in Japan. The number stationed in South Korea was not available, though the Korea War is officially not over, and today tensions are high. Another 126,979 were "undistributed" meaning that DoD wasn't going to tell the enemy (and hence us) exactly where they were, whether out of sensitivity for the host country politics (think Pakistan), or specific dangers of the enemy (think North Korea) in targeting them.
In 1990, we had 250,000 Troops in Germany alone. In 2009, we had 262,793 Troops stationed abroad (minus those accounted for in Combat Zones). Worldwide, we had 1,418,542 Active Duty Troops
But we had shrunk the authorized strength of the Guard and Reserve Forces as well, from 1.17 Million in 1990 to 873,207 in 2000, and further to 836,256 in 2007. Deploying every few years had taken a toll on them. Since some units had been unable to recruit sufficient numbers, they had reduced the number of units, and hence the slots. In 2009, the Obama Administration ordered another 20,000 Soldiers removed from the National Guard alone.
As we move forward, we have a smaller force, both Active Duty and Reserves than we did on 9/11/01, much smaller, even before the Obama cuts. So no, we should not be cutting 49,000 Soldiers from the Active Duty military, but particularly not after having already cut 20,000 from the Army National Guard in 2009. Though we may have 50,000 fewer Troops deployed to Iraq than we did in August 2010, we still have 100,000 more deployed to Afghanistan than we did in 2001, and missions to places like South Korea, the Philippines, and the Sinai Peninsula remain, or have increased since 2001, as have counter-Piracy missions, and the African Command was not even a part of the mission until post 9/11.
If the Military were "big enough," we wouldn't have had 87,525 Guard and Reserve Troops on Active Duty as of 27 Dec 2011.
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