A tornado in Kansas last week. A new poll suggests the public feels
that global warming is real.
A poll due for release on Wednesday shows that a large majority of
Americans believe that this year's unusually warm winter, last year's
blistering summer and some other weather disasters were probably made
worse by global warming. And by a 2-to-1 margin, the public says the
weather has been getting worse, rather than better, in recent years.
By JUSTIN GILLISNYTimes Published: April 17, 2012
Graphic: Seeing a Global Warming Connection
Related
Surviving a Deadly Twister, Twice in 65 Years (April 17, 2012)
100 Tornadoes in 24 Hours, but Plenty of Notice (April 16, 2012)
A poll due for release on Wednesday shows that a large majority of
Americans believe that this year's unusually warm winter, last year's
blistering summer and some other weather disasters were probably made
worse by global warming. And by a 2-to-1 margin, the public says the
weather has been getting worse, rather than better, in recent years.
The survey, the most detailed to date on the public response to
weather extremes, comes atop other polling showing a recent uptick in
concern about climate change. Read together, the polls suggest that
direct experience of erratic weather may be convincing some people
that the problem is no longer just a vague and distant threat.
"Most people in the country are looking at everything that's happened;
it just seems to be one disaster after another after another," said
Anthony A. Leiserowitz of Yale University, one of the researchers who
commissioned the new poll. "People are starting to connect the dots."
The poll opens a new window on public opinion about climate change.
A large majority of climate scientists say the climate is shifting in
ways that could cause serious impacts, and they cite the human release
of greenhouse gases as a principal cause. But a tiny, vocal minority
of researchers contests that view, and has seemed in the last few
years to be winning the battle of public opinion despite slim
scientific evidence for their position.
The poll suggests that a solid majority of the public feels that
global warming is real, a result consistent with other polls that have
asked the question in various ways. When invited to agree or disagree
with the statement, "global warming is affecting the weather in the
United States," 69 percent of respondents in the new poll said they
agreed, while 30 percent disagreed.
Dr. Leiserowitz's unit at Yale, along with researchers at George Mason
University, commissioned the survey, conducted by Knowledge Networks.
That company surveyed 1,008 American adults by computer in the last
half of March, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3
percentage points.
While many online polls are not representative of the broad public,
Knowledge Networks is noted for its efforts to overcome this problem,
including giving computers to households too poor to have them. The
survey reveals public attitudes that are at least roughly consistent
with scientific understanding of how the climate is changing.
For instance, when people were asked whether they attributed specific
events to global warming, recent heat waves drew the largest
majorities. Scientists say their statistical evidence for an increase
of weather extremes is indeed strongest when it comes to heat waves.
Asked whether they agreed or disagreed that global warming had
contributed to the unusually warm winter just past, 25 percent of the
respondents said they strongly agreed that it had, and 47 percent said
they somewhat agreed. Only 17 percent somewhat disagreed, and 11
percent strongly disagreed.
Majorities almost as large cited global warming as a likely factor in
last year's record summer heat wave, as well as the 2011 drought in
Texas and Oklahoma. Smaller but still substantial majorities cited it
as a factor in the record United States snowfalls of 2010 and 2011 and
the Mississippi River floods of 2011. Those views, too, are consistent
with scientific evidence, which suggests that global warming is
causing heavier precipitation in all seasons.
One of the more striking findings was that 35 percent of the public
reported being affected by extreme weather in the past year. The
United States was hit in 2011 by a remarkable string of disasters
affecting virtually every region, including droughts, floods,
tornadoes and heat waves.
Dr. Leiserowitz said that recent events might be puncturing the
public's "very simplistic mental model of what global warming is
supposed to be."
Past survey work had suggested, he said, that people tended to see the
climate change problem as "distant in time and space — that this is an
issue about polar bears or maybe Bangladesh, but not my community, not
the United States, not my friends and family."
Because the survey questions are new, it is not clear how people's
views about weather extremes may be changing over time. However, more
general polling by the Gallup organization suggests that public
concern about climate change, which has waxed and waned over the
years, may be starting to rise again.
Since 1989, Gallup has asked, "how much do you personally worry about
global warming?" The percentage of people saying they were worried
peaked at 66 percent just before the recession, then fell to a low of
51 percent in 2011, as the economy overwhelmed other concerns.
Gallup's most recent survey, in March, showed an uptick to 55 percent.
"It's certainly possible that this is the start of a trend back up,"
said Frank M. Newport, Gallup's editor in chief, though he added that
another year of polling data would be necessary to be certain.
Advocacy groups seeking policies to limit climate change say that
extreme weather is giving them an opening to reach the public.
A group called 350.org is planning a worldwide series of rallies on
May 5, under the slogan "Connect the Dots," to draw attention to the
links between climate change and extreme weather. (The group's name is
a reference to an ideal concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere.)
"My sense from around the country and the world is that people
definitely understand that things are getting freaky," said William E.
McKibben, the founder of 350.org. "During that crazy heat wave in
March, everyone in Chicago was out enjoying the weather, but in the
back of their mind they were thinking, this is not right."
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
--
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