05 December 2010
Missing Jobs Increase Again in November 2010
Continuing the trend since July, the number of missing jobs in the United States increased again in November 2010. As usual, I will present the jobs statistics using those without the seasonal adjustments from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and add in the data from the November Unemployment Report. I calculate the number of missing jobs based upon the percentage of Americans who were or wanted to be in the workforce in January 2000, near the end of a period of several years in which that percentage had been high and fairly constant. I do not believe that Americans are yet lazier than they were then, though the easy availability of long-term unemployment insurance might be changing Americans into more dependent people. But the overriding assumption here is that if the economy were healthy, it would produce enough jobs of high enough quality that 67.49% of Americans would want to work now, as they did in January 2000.
The number of employed Americans fell by 334,000, while the working age population grew by 185,000 people, of whom about 67.49% or about 125,000 would be expected to want jobs. As a consequence, the number of missing jobs grew by 459,000 in a single month. This is approaching a half-million more missing jobs in one month. This is another human disaster. The real unemployment rate is 13.47%, not the commonly touted 9.8%. Despite this, the Wall Street Journal of 4-5 December 2010 has a top front page graphic showing that 39,000 jobs were added in November. Their number was only for the non-farm payrolls.
Despite the early elation of many small business owners that the outcome of the mid-term election would ultimately work to diminish the anti-business climate in the halls of the Federal Government, the uncertainties about next year's tax rates, the escalating awareness of the costs and overhead of ObamaCare, worries about the EPA's rulings on CO2 emissions, increased costs and paperwork coming due to the new FDA regulations just passed through the lame duck Congress, continued worries about the sustainability of the federal debt and that of many state and local governments, and fears of inflation due to the massive printing of money are among the many factors keeping businesses from hiring. Large businesses have many of the same worries and face a world of competitors in which they pay the highest corporate taxes in the world this next year.
The number of employed Americans fell by 334,000, while the working age population grew by 185,000 people, of whom about 67.49% or about 125,000 would be expected to want jobs. As a consequence, the number of missing jobs grew by 459,000 in a single month. This is approaching a half-million more missing jobs in one month. This is another human disaster. The real unemployment rate is 13.47%, not the commonly touted 9.8%. Despite this, the Wall Street Journal of 4-5 December 2010 has a top front page graphic showing that 39,000 jobs were added in November. Their number was only for the non-farm payrolls.
Despite the early elation of many small business owners that the outcome of the mid-term election would ultimately work to diminish the anti-business climate in the halls of the Federal Government, the uncertainties about next year's tax rates, the escalating awareness of the costs and overhead of ObamaCare, worries about the EPA's rulings on CO2 emissions, increased costs and paperwork coming due to the new FDA regulations just passed through the lame duck Congress, continued worries about the sustainability of the federal debt and that of many state and local governments, and fears of inflation due to the massive printing of money are among the many factors keeping businesses from hiring. Large businesses have many of the same worries and face a world of competitors in which they pay the highest corporate taxes in the world this next year.
Labels: economy, EPA, FDA, government debt, inflation, jobs, ObamaCare, printing money, unemployment
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