On 11/1/10, Travis <baconlard@gmail.com> wrote:
> I can think of 533 PoS's that I would like to help join the unemployment
> line. I have a 2X4 handy too.
>
> On Mon, Nov 1, 2010 at 3:53 AM, Cold Water <coldwater000@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> *Grim Dems await huge House losses*
>> By: Alex Isenstadt
>> October 31, 2010 04:53 PM EDT
>>
>> The last TV ads have been cut. The final polls have been conducted. The
>> end-of-campaign expenditures are being made.
>>
>> Now, for Democratic consultants and campaign officials who have plotted
>> and
>> strategized for months to preserve the embattled House majority, there's
>> nothing left to do but sit and wait for the expected horrors of Election
>> Day
>> to unfold.
>>
>> There is nearly uniform consensus among Democratic campaign professionals
>> that the House is gone — the only question, it seems, is how many seats
>> they
>> will lose.
>>
>> While few will say so on the record for fear of alienating party officials
>> or depressing turnout, every one of nearly a dozen Democratic House
>> consultants and political strategists surveyed expect a GOP majority to be
>> elected Tuesday — the consensus was that Democrats would lose somewhere
>> between 50 and 60 seats.
>>
>> A senior party consultant who was on the low end with his predictions said
>> the party would lose between 40 and 50 seats. On the high end, one
>> Democratic consultant said losses could number around 70 seats.
>>
>> All spoke to the grimness of the mood.
>>
>> "It sucks," said Dave Beattie, a Florida-based Democratic pollster who is
>> working on a slate of competitive House races and who acknowledges that
>> the
>> lower congressional chamber is lost. "I'm resigned to the fact that it
>> sucks."
>>
>> While there was optimistic talk within party circles early this month that
>> the electoral environment was improving for the party, the operatives said
>> those conversations don't take place anymore.
>>
>> "If some Democratic consultant told you they are feeling better, they must
>> have dropped some heavy drugs," said a senior pollster who is working for
>> candidates in competitive races. "It's hard."
>>
>> The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee this week launched
>> something of a last-ditch offensive to save some of its incumbents,
>> purchasing airtime to defend endangered members like Iowa Rep. Dave
>> Loebsack, Illinois Rep. Bill Foster and New Jersey Rep. John Adler — all
>> of
>> whom are highly vulnerable but whom party officials believe could
>> ultimately
>> prevail.
>>
>> The committee also sought to shore up incumbents who until recently were
>> not thought to be in electoral peril: Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva, Iowa
>> Rep.
>> Bruce Braley and North Carolina Rep. Mike McIntyre.
>>
>> Still, among those in the Democratic consulting class, there's a gloomy
>> acknowledgment that many of the incumbents the DCCC has spent millions of
>> dollars to protect won't be coming back to Congress.
>>
>> "Everybody that is tied will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few
>> points will lose because of the GOP wave," said one party media consultant
>> who is involved in a wide array of House races. "There are going to be
>> some
>> surprises."
>>
>> Some strategists have resigned themselves to an election night that will
>> bring an early end to the promising careers of Democrats they shepherded
>> to
>> victories in 2006 and 2008.
>>
>> "In a wave election, part of the problem is that you feel powerless.
>> Everything I feel I know how to do, that I'm trained to do, I can't do.
>> And
>> that feeling is pervasive," said the pollster. "There's a sense that
>> there's
>> nothing you can do about it. When you know your friends are on the
>> chopping
>> block, it's hard."
>>
>> "There's nothing worse than talking to an incumbent member of Congress
>> who's been cut off by the DCCC and who has no money," said another
>> Democratic consultant who has worked on crafting some of the party's TV
>> ads
>> this cycle. "It's like talking to a dead man walking."
>>
>> But Nov. 2 will also bring a welcome end to a rough final stretch that
>> left
>> many party strategists frustrated. Some talked about having to switch
>> campaign strategies multiple times in hapless attempts to raise
>> rock-bottom
>> poll numbers.
>>
>> "It's a 24-hour labor," said John Anzalone, an Alabama-based pollster who
>> works closely with the DCCC. "In 2006 and 2008, everything was going your
>> way. This is brutal."
>>
>> There is ongoing debate within Democratic circles about when, exactly, the
>> party lost its handle on the electoral environment. Some consultants say
>> they realized they lost the House in early October, when it finally became
>> apparent that incumbents couldn't move their poll numbers.
>>
>> But others say the electoral map hardened this spring, after the House
>> passed a health care bill that remains deeply unpopular among voters.
>> Democratic campaign officials say it is no accident that there are few
>> Democrats in moderate-to-conservative districts who have promoted their
>> support for the health care measure on the campaign trail, and most don't
>> even acknowledge it.
>>
>> "To a lot of folks, it was a symbol of government," said Beattie, the
>> Florida-based pollster. "It's not about the content for most voters."
>>
>> Already, the finger-pointing is beginning. With outside conservative
>> groups
>> pouring millions of dollars into races across the country, some operatives
>> singled out liberal interest groups for not engaging in the election.
>>
>> "If there's one person to blame, it's the liberal groups who said they
>> would get involved early but they didn't," said the media consultant. "I
>> think they've been totally unhelpful."
>>
>> But, most of the consultants said, much of the post-election scrutiny
>> would
>> surround President Barack Obama and a White House political operation that
>> over the past two years struggled to sell an ambitious agenda that turned
>> out to be radioactive to a wide swath of the electorate.
>>
>> "Here's the part of this that bothers me the most: This is not an
>> embracing
>> of Republicans. It's a rejection of Democrats," said Andrew Myers, a
>> veteran
>> Democratic pollster who worked on several House campaigns.
>>
>> http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=03A44CBF-0C07-448A-99CB09FC8163E166
>>
>> --
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>
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Have a great day,
Tommy
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