In the race to succeed retiring Democratic Senator Chris Dodd,
Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal easily defeated former
wrestling executive Linda McMahon, despite being outspent by McMahon
by 7-1.
McMahon spent more than 40 million dollars on her campaign, almost all
of it her own money. She spent more than any other Senate candidate
this year. Yet as other wealthy self funding candidates this year in
Connecticut (see Ned Lamont) and in other states (see Meg Whitman and
Jeff Greene) found out, money could buy them name recognition but not
necessarily love.
Although this is the year of the "outsider", it was Blumenthal's years
of experience that probably saved him from the attacks by the McMahon
campaign. Moreover, McMahon's lack of political experience contributed
to her failure to overtake Blumenthal after closing in on him after
trailing by a wide margin early in the campaign.
The long time attorney general was able to withstand an onslaught of
tough attacks by Linda McMahon that sought to portray Blumenthal as a
career politician who couldn't be trusted. Many of her television
advertisements focused on Blumenthal's misstatements that he had
served in Vietnam, when he had actually served stateside during
Vietnam.
Full Connecticut Election Results
Connecticut Senate Exit Poll
Full Election Results
Despite these attacks Blumenthal was still viewed as "honest and
trustworthy" by Connecticut voters by a 62-36 percent margin
(preliminary CBS News Exit Poll results). A weaker candidate may have
been brought down by such attacks but Blumenthal had built up goodwill
among Connecticut voters based on his 20 year record as attorney
general that he was able to survive these attacks.
While McMahon billed herself as successful businessman who had the
skill it took to fix the ailing economy, her specific business
experience as head of the WWE turned out to be more of a liability
than an asset. By a 40-11 percent margin, Connecticut voters said that
this experience made them less likely rather than more likely to vote
for her.
Women turned out to be a key to Blumenthal's success. McMahon would
have become the first female senator elected. Yet she lost women by 21
points, but won men by 8 points. Another group that was a key to his
success was independents. Given the Democrats 34-21 percent
registration advantage in Connecticut, a Republican needs to win the
independent vote by a significant margin. Blumenthal was able to split
the independent vote with McMahon 50-49 percent.
Blumenthal had a very good October, which he really needed. After
leading McMahon all year and by as much as 41 points in January
McMahon had closed to within 3 points in September in a Quinnipiac
University Poll.
McMahon stumbled on a question involving the minimum wage which caused
her to be on the defensive for the first time in the campaign.
McMahon initially did not give a clear answer when asked whether she
favored lowering the minimum wage at a press conference. Not only did
this hurt her but her campaign suffered another blow when she said
didn't know what the minimum wage was, despite her business experience
that she was running on. Blumenthal opened up a 12 point lead in
October and never looked back.
Doug Schwartz Ph.D., is the Director of the Quinnipiac University Poll
More:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20021575-503544.html
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
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