Listening to Liars

Listening to Liars
Bob Moriarty
Mar 8, 2011

We elect politicians because they lie to us. Any politician who told the truth would be tarred, feathered and driven out of town. We demand they lie to us. Likewise any bright young spark that wants to earn a nice income can enter the financial writing market and soon make his fortune.

It's not necessary that he or she know anything about what they are writing about. If you want subscribers, all you have to do is learn to tell them just what they want to hear. People will pay big bucks for liars just as they elect them time after time and pay big bucks for their subscription services.

It's because we don't want to know the truth, we want our fantasies catered to. We want to believe that no matter how stupid we are, everyone else is just as stupid.

A bright spark recently wrote me demanding I post his work on silver because it was so brilliant. I read it over and he said nothing that hadn't been said a hundred times before. His work was 100% derivative. Taken from the other 200 people touting silver.

I suggested that he try to come up with some reasons silver might go down and write about that. I got told off big time.

It didn't matter that I said we were at the lowest price for silver in 5000 years within a week of the bottom in December of 2001 or correctly called tops in December of 2004 and March of 2008 or November of 2009. My new email friend pointed out that if I didn't realize that silver was on the way to the moon, I was a fool.

When the clowns start crawling out of the woodwork screaming about how high a commodity is going at the same time as the commodity is at the highest price in 30 years, you are going to have a giant correction very soon.

In March of 2008 there were about 150,000 contracts of silver outstanding as silver hit $21. It was obvious to me that silver was frothy and due for a giant correction. I said it a week in advance and I said it on March 17th, the day of the high. Silver crashed from $21 to $9 an ounce in October.

Thanks to the silver cheerleaders, silver bulls lost $4.3 billion dollars as the number of contracts on Comex dropped to about 75,000. Once again today, silver contracts are about 150,000. It's a cycle that repeats again and again and again.

There was a young silver GURU back then convinced he knew everything about silver. He used to speak at gold shows and literally brag about how much money he was making. That must have been very impressive. His silver positions blew up that year and he is far more poor and humble today.

I'm not saying it's "The Top" since we have not yet seen the wild blowout as the public rushes into gold and silver, each eager to capture the very highest price. The chumps, the bag holders, are not yet out in force. But silver is beyond frothy. It might spike up another $5-$10 but the next $15 move is down.

When I believe we hit the top, I'll say so. When we hit a temporary top, I'll say so. Or you can go watch the latest silver cheerleader show his ass and wave his pom-poms.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty030811.html