By Emily Goodin - 03/05/12 05:00 AM ET
The GOP presidential race will likely be the dominant story this week
as 10 states hold their nominating contests.
Ohio will be the state all observers are watching on Super Tuesday.
Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum have been essentially tied in the polls
there. For Romney, a win in this critical general-election state would
help seal the argument he is the inevitable nominee and could shorten
the GOP nomination process. For Santorum, a win there would give his
campaign a big boost and help prolong the storyline that conservatives
cannot coalesce around a candidate.
President Obama will visit the critical election states of North
Carolina and Virginia to talk about the economy.
Meanwhile, on Capitol Hill, the budget battle continues with several
Cabinet secretaries testifying before committees.
And expect healthcare to remain a big issue this week. House
Republicans are launching an all-out assault on the healthcare law's
Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB), a cost-cutting panel
created by the healthcare reform law. And it's unlikely that the
controversy around contraception will go away.
More:
http://thehill.com/homenews/news/214021-the-week-ahead-gop-field-heads-to-super-tuesday-showdown
The danger of deadlock
By Dick Morris - 03/05/12 05:00 AM ET
If Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich split the remaining primaries and
caucuses – even if Romney wins most of them – we will not have a
nominee until the summer and may not have one until the convention in
late August.
In that case, kiss our chances of beating Obama good-bye!
With a majority of the delegates to be chosen through proportional
representation, Romney would have to win virtually all of the
winner-take-all states and do well in the others to get the nomination
before the convention in late, late, late August.
If Santorum or Gingrich upend Mitt in even a handful of key states, we
will have a deadlock.
Here's how it stacks up.
• Let's assume the best case for Romney: He wins these winner-take-all
states: North Dakota (28 delegates), Vermont (17), Virgin Islands (9),
Guam (9), Puerto Rico (23), Illinois (69), District of Columbia (19),
Maryland (37), Wisconsin (42), Connecticut (28), Delaware (17), Rhode
Island (19), Indiana (46), West Virginia (31), Nebraska (35) losing
only Pennsylvania (72) to Santorum and Georgia (76) and North Carolina
(55) to Gingrich.
• And then assume that Romney "wins" these proportional representation
states but has to split the vote with the other three candidates:
Alaska (27), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (41), Ohio (66), Virginia (49),
Wyoming (29), Kansas (40), Hawaii (20), New York (95), Maine (24),
Oregon (28), Kentucky (45). Assume that Romney "loses" these
proportional representation states but still gets his share of the
delegates: Loses to Newt: Arkansas (36), Alabama (50), Mississippi
(40), Louisiana (46). Loses to Santorum: Oklahoma (43), Tennessee
(58), Colorado (26), Minnesota (40), Missouri (52).
Then, in that case, here's how the delegate total would stack up on May 22nd:
Romney: 837
Santorum: 332
Gingrich: 336
Paul: 127
With 1,144 needed to nominate a candidate. We would be well into May
without a nominee.
• Then, let's assume that Santorum and Gingrich win Texas (155 by
proportional representation) but Romney gets his proportional share (a
third of Texas's delegates are chosen on winner take all. Assume Newt
wins them). Then assume Romney and Santorum split Iowa (28) and Mitt
wins the proportional representation battle in Washington state (43).
Still no majority for anyone.
It would not be until June 5th that a nominee would emerge if Romney
wins the winner-take-all states of California (172), Montana (25) New
Jersey (50), South Dakota (28), and Utah (40) and won the proportional
state of New Mexico (23). At that point, Romney would have 1,250
delegates, about a hundred more than he would need for a majority.
Waiting until June 5th for a nominee against an incumbent president is
an unacceptable risk.
But what if Romney loses just a handful of these states? It would
throw the convention into deadlock. Nobody would have a first ballot
majority and this internecine warfare would drag on until the
convention itself.
If we are to avoid a deadlock, we have to hope one candidate or
another wins them all. And that probably, at this stage, means
Romney.
More:
http://thehill.com/opinion/columnists/dick-morris/214023-the-danger-of-deadlock
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
--
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