New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent

http://blogs.forbes.com/rahimkanani/2011/06/29/new-al-qaeda-chief-zawahiri-has-strong-nuclear-intent/

 

 

New al-Qaeda Chief Zawahiri Has Strong Nuclear Intent

Jun. 29 2011 - 1:16 pm | 221 views | 0 recommendations | 0 comments

By RAHIM KANANI

Image by AFP/Getty Images via @daylife

Rigid, arrogant, unpopular and lacking the necessary charisma to reenergize a battered global terrorist organization, Dr. Ayman al-Zawahri has been continually regarded by U.S. officials and veteran terrorism analysts as incapable of following in the footsteps of Osama bin Laden. Perhaps, but underestimating his ability to orchestrate widespread terror is a dangerous consequence of marginalizing his learned skillset, for we must not discount his former position as al-Qaeda's deputy chief and operational commander for years.

We should be especially worried about the threat of nuclear terrorism under Zawahiri's leadership. In a recent report titled "Islam and the Bomb: Religious Justification For and Against Nuclear Weapons", which I researched for and contributed to, lead author Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, former director of intelligence and counterintelligence at the U.S. Department of Energy, argues that al-Qaeda's WMD ambitions are stronger than ever. And that "this intent no longer feels theoretical, but operational."

"I believe al-Qaeda is laying the groundwork for a large scale attack on the United States, possibly in the next year or two," continues Mowatt-Larssen in the opening of the report issued earlier this year by the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School. "The attack may or may not involve the use of WMD, but there are signs that al-Qaeda is working on an event on a larger scale than the 9/11 attack."

Most will readily dismiss such claims as implausible and unlikely, and we hope they are right, but after spending months with Mowatt-Larssen, who also served as the former head of the Central Intelligence Agency's WMD and terrorism efforts, scrutinizing and cross-referencing Zawahiri's 268-page treatise published in 2008 titled "Exoneration", the analytics steered us towards something far more remarkable than expected.

"As I read the text closely, in the broader context of al-Qaeda's past, my concerns grew that Zawahiri has written this treatise to play a part in the ritualistic process of preparing for an impending attack," states Mowatt-Larssen. "As Osama bin Laden's fatwa in 1998 foreshadowed the 9/11 attack, Ayman Zawahiri's fatwa in 2008 may have started the clock ticking for al-Qaeda's next large scale strike on America. If the pattern of al-Qaeda's modus operandi holds true, we are in the middle of an attack cycle."

Among several important findings, Zawahiri sophisticatedly weaves identical passages, sources and religious justifications for a nuclear terrorist attack against the United States previously penned by radical Saudi cleric Nasir al Fahd. Indeed, the language used, research cited, and arguments put forth are nothing short of detailed and deliberate. Reading as both a religious duty to kill millions of Americans and a lengthy suicide note together, this piece of literature is something we must take seriously with Zawahiri now at the helm of al-Qaeda. The time may have come for al-Qaeda's new CEO to leave a legacy of his own.

Concluding the author's note, Mowatt-Larssen states, "Even if this theory proves to be wrong, it is better to overestimate the enemy than to under­estimate him. Conventional wisdom holds that al-Qaeda is spent—that they are incapable of carrying out another 9/11. Leaving aside whether this view is correct, for which I harbor grave doubts, we will surely miss the signs of the next attack if we continue to overestimate our own successes, and dismiss what terrorists remain capable of accomplishing when they put their minds to it."

We must remember that Zawahiri's arrogance and rigidness are not substitutes for determination and will.

Rahim Kanani is founder and editor-in-chief of World Affairs Commentary, where he authors articles on international affairs and social change, and interviews global leaders on topics such as human rights, development, security, philanthropy, innovation, education, and more. 

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