Why Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucuses

Why Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucuses
Des Moines : IA : USA | Nov 18, 2011 at 1:50 AM PST
By Punditty
OPINION AND COMMENTARY
By Darren Richardson
Special to The Punditty Project


Nov. 18, 2011

The participatory enthusiasm of Rep. Ron Paul's online fans is widely known, and it has carried over on several occasions to real flesh-and-blood straw poll victories in the North, South, East and West. In roughly six weeks, it will pay off with a victory in the Iowa Caucuses.

The writing has been on the wall for some time now, at least for those who have been open-minded enough to read it. Beginning with the Ames Straw Poll in mid-August, when Paul finished a close second to the first GOP "Flavor of the Month," Rep. Michelle Bachmann of Minnesota, it didn't take a visionary to see that Paul's base was going to hold while other candidates would see their support rise and fall like some worthless stock propped up by bailout funds.

Because Paul is the genuine article and not another just blow-with-the wind politician, he has held his own in the polls and is now gaining ground. The Paul campaign's organizational prowess and the deep convictions of his hard-working supporters, along with an astoundingly weak field of Republican presidential contenders, will lift the Texas congressman to a first-place finish in Iowa when the Hawkeye State kicks off the nation's voting season on Jan. 3, 2012.


Another look at Paul's base

Throughout the 2011 portion of Campaign 2012, there has been a tendency among well-established political reporters and commentators to qualify all the good news for Paul by framing his success in reductionist terms. "He's got some dedicated supporters, but he can never rise above his base." Some supposedly wise pundits have repeated variations of this line over the past several months as if to cue readers and listeners not to take Paul too seriously. Many of these same pundits were absolutely certain that Texas Gov. Rick Perry would be the nominee and practically arranged his coronation the same day he announced his candidacy, based on their oh-so-certain prognosticative powers.

But there is another side to Paul's numbers that the know-it-alls fail to mention. Namely, his base does not shrink, it grows. As the other Republican wannabes crumble under the weight of their own inadequacies and contradictions, Paul is emerging as a pillar of strength and conviction. Paul's base is the kind of base that will gladly accept challenges like convincing at least three other people to vote for Paul, or making sure all Paul supporters have a ride to the polls, or working phone banks and e-mail lists for hours on end to give their man an edge. This is the kind of enthusiasm that breeds winners.


Paul -- a true populist

Paul is a true populist, something this nation hasn't seen since the inspired campaign of Bobby Kennedy in 1968, and an entire generation of political observers is either too jaded or too bought-off to frankly assess the Paul campaign for what it is -- a phenomenon that will shake the roots of the Republican Party to its very core, a jolt that could possibly lead to the most significant voting re-alignment since the 1968 election saw the South go Republican.

The Republican Party establishment is not pleased with Paul's ascent. But the people who give the party their votes are extremely pleased, and they are sharing the good news with all who will listen and helping them register as Republicans so as to help Dr. Paul's cause in the primaries. Like it or not, the Republican Party is facing a long-overdue uprising in its ranks, one that will cause some historical shifts not only in 2012 but over the next few election cycles as well. We are seeing nothing less than the Liberty-loving wing of the GOP -- and the electorate as a whole -- say "Enough is enough!" when it comes to domestic and foreign policies that are harming rather than helping the national interests of the United States.

A recent Bloomberg poll finds Paul and the fading Cain in a virtual tie in Iowa, and a large part of Paul's success there in recent weeks is due to a flurry of ads that his enthusiastic supporters make possible with their steady stream of donations. Look for Paul to take advantage of his Iowa win with by scheduling a "money bomb" weekend before the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 10, where he will likely finish a strong second to New Englander Mitt Romney.


The Gary Johnson factor

Ironically, the GOP's decision to stack the deck against former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson's candidacy by excluding him from most debates based on spurious reasoning and suspect rules is helping Paul with the very Republican voters who party heavies feared would support Johnson. And with Johnson now hinting that he might seek the Libertarian nomination, Paul-leaning Republicans will definitely take a closer look at Johnson and possibly defect from the GOP if Paul does not win the Republican nod. All in all, it's looking like the cry of "Ron Paul or nothing at all" may be one that carries the day for Republicans in 2012.

A recent Public Policy Polling found that Paul is the only Republican candidate that leads Obama among independents, holding a 48-39 edge. This is significant for one very important reason, and you can be sure it will be mentioned by the Paul faithful during the caucusing in Iowa: It indicates that all of the other Republican candidates would start the race fighting an uphill battle against Obama, whereas Paul would already lead in this crucial demographic.


SOURCES:

2012 Primary Schedule, 2012presidentialelectionnews.com

Obama leads nationally, Nov. 15, 2011, publicpollingpolicy.com

Ron Paul continues Iowa surge, www.ronpaul2012.com

Gary Johnson says he might run as a Libertarian after all, talkingpointsmemo, Nov. 16, 2011


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