Disregard These Election Predictions

Disregard These Predictions
By ANDREW ROSENTHAL

Jacquelyn Martin/Associated Press
In this April 26, 2012 file photo, House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio
speaks during his weekly news conference on Capitol Hill in
Washington.
John Boehner said last week that his party faces a "real challenge" in
holding its Congressional majority. "I would say that there is a
two-in-three chance that we win control of the House again," he said
on Fox News. Then he added, presumably for the benefit of those who
struggle with math, "but there's a one-in-three chance that we could
lose."

Also last week, Karl Rove released an electoral college map with 284
votes solidly for the president or leaning his way versus 172 for Mitt
Romney, and 82 toss-ups.

And on Monday, Politico reported that Dan Rather thinks "President
Obama is even money at best at this particular time…his odds right now
are 50/50 in my book."

Reporters quickly publicized all of these predictions, and readers
should just as quickly disregard them.

Mr. Boehner's forecast sounds more like a fundraising appeal than a
reasoned assessment. If you hand over just a little more cash for
attack ads, we're sure to win! Mr. Rather's 50/50 odds, in this age of
low 50s/high 40s elections, are no better than a shrug. Mr. Rove, who
at least based his opinion on polling averages, admits that data is
scarce in some states. "Look for 'lean Obama' states to shift to 'lean
Romney,'" he says in his polling notes, essentially conceding that the
final electoral map will look nothing like his mock-up. (Not in the
notes, but certainly implied: If you hand over just a little more cash
for attack ads, we're sure to win!)

In the spirit of flimsy bookmaking, here's my contribution: I would
say that there is a two-in-three chance that all of the above
predictions are meaningless, but there's a one-in-three chance they're
not.

More:
http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/30/disregard-these-predictions/?nl=opinion&emc=edit_ty_20120501

--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy



--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy

--
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