What this really means that it is highly likely that the GOP
Obstructionists will lose the House, and then President Obama will
have a Congress that will work with him. Very good news, indeed. -T
Boehner: 'One in three chance' House Republicans could lose majority
By Cameron Joseph - 04/23/12 08:20 PM ET
Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) said Monday that his party faces a
"real challenge" in holding on to its majority in the House.
In an interview with Fox News that is scheduled to air Tuesday,
Boehner predicted the GOP will keep control of the House, but sounded
less certain than many of his Republican colleagues — and a number of
nonpartisan prognosticators.
"I believe that we will, but we've got a real challenge," he said when
asked if Republicans will maintain control of the lower chamber.
The Ohio lawmaker put the odds at 2-to-1 that the GOP will be running
the House in 2013.
"I would say that there is a two-in-three chance that we win control
of the House again but there's a 1-in-3 chance that we could lose, and
I'm being myself, frank. We've got a big challenge and we've got work
to do," he said.
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House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) struck a more optimistic
tone last week when he predicted the GOP will pick up seats in
November.
"I'm very bullish on the House," Cantor said. "I am very confident
that we will strengthen our majority."
Boehner is worried that Republican donors will take the House for
granted, and pour their money into the battle for the White House and
the Senate.
A GOP aide familiar with Boehner's decision to make the comment said
the Speaker doesn't want donors to become complacent, or less
generous, in the effort to retain the new majority.
Former National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC)
Communications Director Ken Spain echoed that point on Twitter by
offering a "translation" of Boehner's remarks: "We feel very good but
don't want donors to stop giving."
Boehner has expressed concern that the Democratic Congressional
Campaign Committee (DCCC) has gone toe-to-toe on fundraising with the
NRCC this cycle.
Normally, the party that controls the House dominates the battle for
cash. The DCCC, however, outraised the NRCC in 2011, though the
Republican campaign committee has enjoyed a cash-on-hand advantage.
Political handicappers say Congress's record-low approval ratings will
certainly not help House Republicans, who vowed sweeping reforms
following the last election. Most nonpartisan experts contend that
Democrats will cut into Boehner's majority, but not break it. They
also note there are more than six months to go before voters head to
the polls, an eternity in politics.
Democrats have stopped short of predicting they will take back the
House, but they are expressing more confidence.
Earlier this month, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said
the chances of the lower chamber flipping are greater than 50-50.
At a news conference in San Francisco, Pelosi said, "I would have
said, two months ago, we had a 50-50 chance of winning the House.
Since then, so much changed because women have shifted in large
measure to the president and to the Democrats."
Boehner told Fox News that his biggest worries are districts in
Democratic-leaning states that would not be contested at the
presidential level. In many, the local Republican parties are less
organized.
"We have 50 of our members in tough races, 89 freshmen running for
their first reelections, and we have 32 districts that are in states
where there is no presidential campaign going to be run, no big Senate
race, and we call these orphan districts," he said. "You take 18 of
them, California, Illinois and New York, where you know we're not
likely to do well at the top of the ticket, and those districts are
frankly pretty vulnerable."
History is on the GOP's side. Democrats need a net gain of 25 seats to
grab the gavel from Boehner, and they are playing defense in various
districts in red states. And President Obama's mediocre approval
ratings have some Democrats worried.
Moreover, only once since World War II has the party in the White
House gained more than House 15 seats in a presidential election year.
Yet, Democrats point to the recent history of the last three wave
elections. In 2006, Democrats won the House by winning 30 seats, and
two years later they picked up another 24. Republicans took back the
House in 2010 by capturing 63 seats.
DCCC Chairman Steve Israel (N.Y.) has repeatedly said the House is in
play, predicting that it will be a "razor close" contest for the
majority.
— Molly K. Hooper and Bob Cusack contributed to this report.
— Updated at 8:20 p.m.
More:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/223117-boehner-gop-faces-real-challenge-to-keeping-house-majority
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
--
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