The parting on the left, is now parting on the right

The parting on the left, is now parting on the right

I'll tip my hat to the new constitution
Take a bow for the new revolution
Smile and grin at the change all around
Pick up my guitar and play
Just like yesterday
Then I'll get on my knees and pray
We don't get fooled again
-- The Who

Actually, I won't get fooled again, because -- unlike millions of gullible voters -- I don't expect the Tea Party to reduce the size of government any more than Obama increased civil liberties. But since after the 2008 election I offered my predictions for what Obama wouldn't do, I feel I should do likewise for the Tea Party Republicans. Here's my list of what the Tea Party won't do in the next two years -- and remember, spending bills originate in the House, so they have the power even without the Senate and President.

1. Reduce the federal budget by any amount, in either absolute or inflation-adjusted dollars.
2. Hold the federal debt ceiling to its present level ($14.3 trillion). In fact, I predict they will increase the ceiling at least twice in the next two years, to at least $15.8 trillion.
3. Cut the military budget by any amount, in either absolute or inflation-adjusted dollars.
4. Reduce the number of troops in Afghanistan -- currently about 100,000 -- except by redeployment elsewhere in Central Command's area of responsibility (e.g. Yemen, Pakistan).
5. Eliminate the use of "earmarks" in spending bills.
6. Reduce, to any extent, Medicare benefits or eligibility (e.g. by means testing).
7. Reduce, to any extent, Social Security benefits or eligibility (e.g. by raising the retirement age).
8. Allow any major bank to fail (by refusing to authorize bailout funds).
9. Eliminate any federal agency or bureau (e.g. by removing its budget).

A Tea Party Republican is no different from an Establishment Republican, or a Democrat, or any other politician: once they're in power, the incentives of power dominate their actions. They'll abandon principles, conceal their activities, cut deals, spend irresponsibly, pander to lobbyists, pay off their supporters, and do whatever it takes to hold and extend their power. I'll give the last word to The Who:

Meet the new boss / Same as the old boss



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