primary campaign. OBAMA 2012!
GOP leaders fret about fallout from primary, and for good reason Mike
Huckabee criticized the tenor of the GOP presidential race on Sunday,
becoming the latest Republican Party elder statesmen to caution the
current field of candidates against how the campaign has been
conducted.
"A lot of it is that I think that there's just such a toxic atmosphere
now, specifically in the Republican Party," Huckabee said in an
interview with an Israeli TV station. "And I would love to be able to
say that it's going to be all about ideas and solutions, but
unfortunately, a lot of it is just being able to say I (am) more angry
at the Obama administration than somebody else."
Huckabee joins other GOP graybeards like Jeb Bush and Haley Barbour,
and some Republican governors in expressing dismay at the direction of
the GOP race.
And the numbers show they have good reason for concern.
The most recent Gallup numbers show three of the four remaining
Republican presidential candidates have higher GOP leaders fret about
fallout from primarythan favorable ratings, including Mitt Romney,
whose personal unfavorable rating has shot up to 47 percent in recent
weeks.
Romney is now viewed unfavorably by essentially the same percentage of
voters as President Obama, even though Obama's favorable rating (50
percent) is more than 10 points higher than Romney's (39 percent).
Even the lone GOP candidate who is in net-positive territory — Rick
Santorum — has a favorable rating (38 percent) only slightly higher
than his unfavorable rating (35 percent).
A look back at history shows this is both unusual and troubling for the GOP.
Gallup polling in the 2008 race at this point put Sen. John McCain's
(R-Ariz.) favorable/unfavorable splits at 67 percent favorable and 27
percent unfavorable. On the Democratic side, now-President Obama was
at 62 percent positive and 33 percent negative, and even the
supposedly polarizing Hillary Clinton was at 53 percent favorable and
44 percent unfavorable — still clearly in net-positive territory.
Similarly, at this point in 2004, Sen. John Kerry's (D-Mass.)
favorable rating was 60 percent and, despite the rough-and-tumble
campaign, never dipped below 50 percent from this point on.
This isn't a totally apples-to-apples comparison, of course.
Americans are much more cynical about politicians these days, and we
see that in the approval and favorable ratings of politicians from
senators to local elected officials — not just the GOP presidential
candidates. While a politician with an approval rating below 50
percent used to be left for dead, that threshold is now arguably 45
percent or lower.
Also, Kerry and McCain had both essentially locked up their
nominations at the point the numbers above were released, and they
both got boosts from winning their races.
Indeed, Kerry and McCain's earlier numbers weren't nearly as rosy;
both were in much more middling territory just a few months before
their ratings shot up. McCain's favorable rating dropped as low as 41
percent when his campaign was really struggling, while Kerry had a
higher unfavorable rating (32 percent) than favorable rating (31
percent) as the calendar turned to 2004.
That would seem to suggest that the GOP field's current struggles
could just as easily turn around once one of them sews up the
nomination. And that's possible.
But it should also be noted that neither Kerry nor McCain was ever
nearly as unpopular during their primary campaigns as Romney is right
now — their highest unfavorable ratings only reached the low 30s, far
shy of Romney's 47 percent. Even when McCain was left for dead as a
candidate, he wasn't in nearly as bad a shape as Romney is right now
and still had a higher favorable rating than unfavorable rating.
So when people like Huckabee, Bush and Barbour worry, it's understandable.
Santorum's national lead collapses: Santorum's double-digit lead has
collapsed just as fast as it materialized.
The Gallup national tracking poll on Sunday showed Romney regaining
the lead, 31 percent to 29 percent.
Just days ago, Santorum led the poll by 10 percent — a pretty stunning
shift that appeared to be set in motion even before Wednesday's
debate.
Daniels says he's 'not planning' to crash presidential race: Sen. Jim
DeMint (R-S.C.) recently wagered that the one person who could enter
the presidential race late and have a shot is Indiana Gov. Mitch
Daniels.
But Daniels isn't biting.
"I wasn't running, I'm not running, and I don't plan to run," Daniels
said this weekend at the National Governors Association conference in
Washington, D.C. "I'd love to have something new to say to y'all, but
I just don't. I've felt there are other ways a person can contribute,
and I'm trying to do that in other ways. But I'm not a candidate, and
I'm not planning to be."
Of course, a skeptic might read that as not totally foreclosing the
possibility. Daniels said he doesn't "plan to" run versus saying he
"won't run."
Not Shermanesque, but close.
Meanwhile, in related news, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R) says
there could be a contested convention if Romney loses Michigan.
More:
WashingtonPost.com
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
--
Together, we can change the world, one mind at a time.
Have a great day,
Tommy
--
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