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Sent: Wed, April 13, 2011 4:12:20 PM
Subject: PakNationalists - ISI & CIA: Pakistan Eyes New Terms Of Cooperation With US In Afghanistan
Pakistan Eyes New Terms Of Cooperation With US In Afghanistan
The Pakistani side is trying to play its cards in a smart way to renegotiate terms without giving this relationship a huge shock
Click Here To Listen To The Radio Interview
THE VOICE OF RUSSIA | Wednesday | 13 April 2011 | Project Pakistan 21
Interview with Ahmed Quraishi, senior research fellow at an independent Pakistani think-tank Project For Pakistan In 21st Century
See interview on RUVR's website
[TRANSCRIPT]
AQ: I think, what we're seeing for the first time since 9/11 is that Pakistan is trying to renegotiate the terms of cooperation, and that is exactly what we've seen happening. Of course, this would be understandably very alarming for the US government and for CIA, because that would mean a change on the ground and a change in the way they've been operating in this region for the past 9 years. So this is a big deal. I'm sure you know that the Pakistan government, the previous one, the current one, have been under tremendous pressure from parts of the public opinion to renegotiate the terms. A lot of Pakistanis believe that the concessions that former President Pervez Musharraf gave the Americans were detrimental in some major ways to Pakistani interests and they were very favorable to American interests, and so there was no balance. And now we see despite the grave imbalance in the Pakistani-American relationship, the Pakistani side trying to play its cards in a smart way to renegotiate those terms without giving this relationship a huge shock. So it's understandable, when we see this kind of reports, the one in the New York Times for example, to see some of the US government officials describing the current relationship as being close to a near collapse. But from the Pakistani side the objective is very clear; I don't think anyone really wants it to collapse, but they are certainly bargaining very hard to renegotiate the terms of cooperation.
The New York Time maintains that the reason for the present deterioration of relations between the United States and Pakistan is the situation around the CIA agent Davis. Perhaps, they are oversimplifying the situation?
There is no doubt about that. Imagine that for the past 9 years the ISI has been cooperating with the CIA and all of a sudden ISI discovers, that the CIA is maintaining a network of informers, of intelligence operatives inside Pakistan without the knowledge of ISI. Of course all spy agencies do this, everybody does it, but because of the close nature of cooperation between ISI and CIA for the past 9 years, what was disturbing this time is that Mr. Davis, and I will not go into details, that he was in contact with some of the terrorist groups that were killing Pakistani civilians. And there are some material evidences and some of the debriefings that were done with him before he was handed over to the Americans, indicated, that he was in touch with the wrong kind of people without informing the Pakistani authorities. Obviously, that was a breakdown in communication and a breakdown in trust between ISI and CIA. Of course, there is a whole list of issues also in the background that unfortunately are not coming up in the media very clearly. For example, Pakistanis have certain grievances with regard to CIA that go beyond just the drone attacks. There is much more, there is a question of the attacks that some of the terrorists and separatists who are conducting terror activities in South-Western Pakistan, in the province of Balochistan, have a very good safe haven in an American-controlled Afghanistan. Pakistanis are asking, why is it that a territory, which is under control of the United States, has become a safe haven for terrorists, who are waging an insurgency inside Pakistan. This is a bone of contention; it also gives rise to certain theories. Is it possible that there are some rogue elements within the CIA who are sort of punishing the ISI and Pakistani military for not cooperating in Afghanistan? There are other questions also. Some of the members of the so-called Pakistani Taliban, who were evicted by the Pakistani military from Swat in military operations, also took refuge in Afghanistan. The question that is raised here is how they managed to cross over into Afghanistan and find safe haven there? Where are NATO forces? Where are American forces? Where is the Afghan national army? And Pakistan is asked to control the movements of Afghan Taliban, who come into Pakistan, then why is it that we don't receive a reciprocal cooperation from the other side, from the international forces on the Afghan side? So these are really major issues that go much beyond just a question of Raymond Davis, just the question of the Americans running a parallel intelligence network inside Pakistan without informing the ISI and also go beyond the fact that there are drone attacks and all. The last drone attack, resulted in the murder of 40 innocent civilians, was a clear case of somebody somewhere in the CIA in Afghanistan conducting that particular attack that appeared to be more the sort of revenge than anything else; there was no intelligence of any Al-Qaeda operatives or high-value targets there. It just seemed very inexplicable, that the CIA would attack a gathering of civilians that would backfire on the Pakistani government and would increase the insurgency in Pakistan's tribal belt.
What you are telling me coincides whit what President Zardari said yesterday. He said that the war in Afghanistan was destabilizing Pakistan and seriously undermining efforts to restore democratic institutions and economic prosperity. But he also added, that more and more people now start to think, that there is no military solution in Afghanistan. But what is the American stand?
The Americans slowly and gradually by the force of ground realities will have to come around this fact. Already there is a huge debate in Washington on this, and the reason there is this debate is because the ground realities have proven the theory that the Pakistan president has explained. And it is clear now, that Afghanistan is a mess. Some analysts compared the talk about expanding NATO's mission in Libya to the situation in Afghanistan where the NATO mission is a complete failure; in 9 years they have a country, which is not under their complete control and it's a complete mess. So it is very clear, that there is no solution to Afghanistan for the time being except a political one, and I think, that there is quite bit of a progress being made on that front.
What is Pakistan planning to do in this situation?
The Pakistani strategy is pushing toward a political reconciliation in Afghanistan. Pakistan is trying to show its good intention. One sign of that came last week, when Pakistan announced that it would not object if India participated in some of reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan, which is a huge change in the Pakistani position. Pakistan basically wants to say, that we have no bad intentions towards Afghanistan, we are willing to cooperate with all the parties concerned and our foremost priority is stability in Afghanistan, and for that we have no problem if even India joins the efforts. So for the first time India would also join the efforts that Turkey is spearheading regarding recompilation inside Afghanistan, and India would be participating in these meetings, which would take place in the next few days. So this is a major change in the Pakistani position. Pakistan also wants to show these skeptical elements in the Washington establishment that we are willing to cooperate, and if you withdraw troops, if you get out of Afghanistan and begin a withdrawal, this would not mean necessarily a return to the situation that we saw in Afghanistan back in the 1990s, when different parts of Afghanistan were under the control of different factions; that should not really happen. And all the theories about Pakistan waiting out for the American withdrawal so it could restart its great game in Afghanistan and start playing the same old game through proxy, these are not true. The biggest sign that Pakistan is giving, is that we have never been on the same page with India, what regards to Afghanistan, but we are more than happy to cooperate. Pakistani diplomacy has also opened new avenues for cooperation with Russia as well. Pakistani diplomats now seem to be increasingly hopeful, that the Russians will also have a role to play to stabilize Afghanistan. So it is now a collective game, and hopefully this would reduce some of the mutual suspicions, that various players have had about each other with the regards to Afghanistan.
Is it going to be a part of the agenda of Mr Zardari's visit to Turkey these days?
Actually the unsaid words about this visit have to do with the reconciliation efforts in Afghanistan. Turkey is playing a major role: over the past few months consensus developed between various players that we need to find a country that can act as a neutral venue [for talks] that everybody could trust. For example, there was also some talk about the fact, that the Afghan Taliban also needed a place where they could freely conduct talks with the Afghan government representatives and others. And it emerged that Turkey came up as a good venue for all of this. And probably we are going to see in the next few days the opening of a representation office in Turkey where the negotiators from the Afghan Taliban could be based there. So Turkey has emerged as a neutral venue for reconciliation talks in Afghanistan, and all of us will see increase the activity in Turkey with regards to Afghanistan in the next few days. And the purpose of the visit of the Pakistan president to Turkey basically is all about this point – reconciliation in Afghanistan.
To find out more on the issue, read or listen to our Burning Point program from April 12, 2011 in Radio section.
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