Fwd: New Groundbreaking Poll from The Hill/ANGA

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New Groundbreaking Poll I wanted to make sure you know about The Hill/ANGA's groundbreaking new midterm election poll, conducted by Penn Schoen Berland, that came out first thing Wednesday morning. It's the first in a series of important surveys that, over the next four weeks, will point more clearly than any others to the outcome of voting. The first results can be seen at www.thehill.com. The Hill/ANGA 2010 Midterm Election Poll is unique because it gives readers information that doesn't normally become public. We're building a big picture using detailed polling in 42 toss-up House races. This is not a national survey, which can say nothing about what will happen in any given district. Instead, it reveals what likely voters in congressional battlegrounds are going to do on Election Day, Nov. 2.. The first week's polling focuses on freshman Democrats, next week's will look at open seats, the third will focus on second-term lawmakers and, finally, in the week before the election, The Hill/ANGA poll will look at long-term incumbents. Together these polls will offer the best answer to the big question: Who is going to win? "The breadth and scope of this investigation into the battle for control of the House is quite comprehensive," said Mark Penn, who led the Penn Schoen Berland team that conducted the poll. "In this cycle, no other news organization has conducted and published polling of so many battleground districts. This research gives The Hill's readers access to insights previously held as guarded secrets by campaigns and party committees." The polls are sponsored by the American Natural Gas Alliance. Week 1 polling provides data on the following House districts: Mich.-7, Ariz.-1, Ill.-11, Md.-1, N.M.-2, Nev.-3, Ohio-15 and -16, Colo.-4, Va.-2 and -5 and Pa.-3. The results are striking. In all but one race, the Republican challenger is ahead; in the 12th, the incumbent Democrat and GOP challenger are tied. Enjoying a lead in 11 out of 12 districts, Republicans might expect to run the table — except that none of them is above 50 percent, and the lead for half of these districts is within the margin of error. So, while suggesting the possibility of a tsunami that could sweep away Democratic freshmen, many races nevertheless remain wide open and the GOP wave could dwindle into a ripple. In addition to crucially important findings in the headline congressional races, The Hill/ANGA poll gets answers to fascinating questions such as whether and how much midterm voting decisions will be determined by President Obama's popularity or lack of it; whether voters want divided government or one-party control; and whether they support repeal of the new healthcare law. Some other key findings in the new The Hill/ANGA polling: · Two-thirds of voters in key battleground districts will be thinking about President Obama when they choose their next member of Congress. · Healthcare reform is hurting the reelection chances of freshman Democrats in the House. A majority of voters in key battleground districts favor repeal of the legislative overhaul that Congress passed this year. Sincerely, Hugo Gurdon, Editor in Chief, The Hill

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