>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> > Diplomats and leaders, from President
> > Obama to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will sit back
> > awhile
> > and watch to see if sanctions are working, if the regime will start to
> > unravel from within, well aware that wars are much easier to start
> > than to
> > get out of.
> > ---
> > those who want war should go expediently
>
> > the peaceful will not miss them
>
> > On Jan 22, 6:28 am, Bruce Majors <
majors.br...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > > --------
>
> > >
http://www.csmonitor.com/layout/set/print/content/view/print/452210 >
> > > By Dan Murphy, Staff writer
> > > posted January 19, 2012 at 11:57 am EST
>
> > > The war drums on Iran continue to beat onward. Hawkish editorials and
> > > opinion pieces adopt the style and content of articles from a decade ago,
> > > in which a Middle Eastern country run by a "madman" was on the brink of
> > > obtaining weapons of mass destruction – weapons that would almost
> > > certainly be used to threaten the security of the world.
>
> > > The older articles were about Iraq and the weapons of mass destruction
> > > that Saddam Hussein almost certainly had (except he didn't). The current
> > > crop are about Iran. Front and center is an op-ed by Mark Helprin in the
> > > Wall Street Journal yesterday titled "The mortal threat from Iran." He
> > > writes that the "primitive religious fanatics" who rule Iran don't think
> > > rationally about their own nation's interests, and that, absent a US
> > > attack soon, "Iran will get nuclear weapons, which in its eyes are an
> > > existential necessity."
>
> > > Mr. Helprin, a senior fellow at the Claremont Institute in California,
> > > even echoes Condoleezza Rice's January 2003 warning that the smoking gun
> > > of an Iraqi nuclear program could be a "mushroom cloud." He writes: "We
> > > cannot dismiss the possibility of Iranian nuclear charges of 500 pounds
> > or
> > > less ending up in Manhattan or on Pennsylvania Avenue."
>
> > > RELATED: Iran nuclear program: 5 key sites
>
> > > To be sure, Iraq and Iran are not the same; Iran is indeed enriching
> > > uranium, a key component of a nuclear weapon. But the fear-mongering
> > > sounds the same. What today's arguments about Iran ignore, however – much
> > > as the arguments in favor of the Iraq war ignored – was the position of
> > > the US intelligence community that Iran is not currently building a
> > > nuclear weapon. The US position appears to be that Iran is seeking the
> > > ability to build a weapon, without actually taking that final step.
>
> > > Two weekends ago, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said: "Are they trying
> > to
> > > develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they're trying to develop
> > a
> > > nuclear capability and that's what concerns us and our red line to Iran
> > > is: Do not develop a nuclear weapon."
>
> > > And it's not just the US assessment. Israel's liberal newspaper Haaretz
> > > reported yesterday that "Iran has not yet decided whether to make a
> > > nuclear bomb, according to the intelligence assessment Israeli officials
> > > will present later this week to [visiting] Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman
> > > of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff." Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak
> > > poured cold water on speculation that his country is planning a
> > unilateral
> > > attack against Iran. "This entire thing is very far off. I don't want to
> > > provide estimates [but] it's certainly not urgent," he said.
>
> > > To be sure, there are concerns. US, European, and Israeli officials
> > > suspect that Iran is concealing much of its nuclear work, which it
> > insists
> > > is for peaceful purposes only, and that weapons-related work that they
> > > don't know about could be taking place. The head of the International
> > > Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, told the Financial Times' German
> > > edition yesterday: "What we know suggests the development of nuclear
> > > weapons," according to a Reuters translation.
>
> > > War with Iran? A briefing.
>
> > > But the flow of recent statements has been mostly in the opposite
> > > direction. Concern? Yes. Redoubled efforts to use sanctions to force more
> > > light onto Iran's nuclear activities? Yes, absolutely. Hair-on-fire
> > panic?
> > > No.
>
> > > The tone from private-sector analysts is something else, however. One of
> > > the latest examples is from Jamie M. Fly and Gary Schmitt, writing in
> > > Foreign Affairs. They even quote former Secretary of Defense Donald
> > > Rumsfeld's line about "known unknowns," (that is, things that Saddam
> > > Hussein might be hiding) being a cause to consider going to war with Iraq
> > > in February 2002.
>
> > > They write that in the case of Iran, the "known unknowns" are
> > "troubling,"
> > > and go on to outline a case for a broad US war to bring down the Islamic
> > > Republic. Having asserted that US airstrikes targeting Iran's nuclear
> > > sites would probably fail in ending the program, they write: "Given the
> > > likely fallout from even a limited military strike, the question the
> > > United States should ask itself is, Why not take the next step? After
> > all,
> > > Iran's nuclear program is a symptom of a larger illness – the
> > > revolutionary fundamentalist regime in Tehran."
>
> > > They then suggest that a broad US air campaign against Iran would be
> > > popular with Iranians. "It is sometimes said that a strike would lead the
> > > population to rally around the regime. In fact, given the unpopularity of
> > > the government, it seems more likely that the population would see the
> > > regime's inability to forestall the attacks as evidence that the emperor
> > > has no clothes and is leading the country into needlessly desperate
> > > straits. If anything, Iranian nationalism and pride would stoke even more
> > > anger at the current regime."
>
> > > That flies in the face of Iranian history and what most Iranians –
> > > including members of the Green Movement – say about how the population
> > > would respond to war. While there is clearly great discontent with the
> > > regime, and many millions of Iranians would like to throw off clerical
> > > rule, the history of Iran suggests that war would probably result in an
> > > uptick in support for the regime, confronted as it would be by a hostile
> > > foreign power. When Saddam Hussein gambled that Iran was weak in the wake
> > > of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and went to war, the result was a rallying
> > > of support for the fledgling Iranian regime and a ruinous war that helped
> > > the country's new theocrats consolidate their power.
>
> > > For now, the war talk looks set to go on. But with Iranian parliamentary
> > > elections scheduled for March – a chance for the opposition to perhaps
> > > show its political strength, or another occasion for Iran's rulers to fix
> > > the results, as happened in the 2009 presidential reelection – the
> > chances
> > > of action soon are vanishingly slim. Diplomats and leaders, from
> > President
> > > Obama to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, will sit back awhile
> > > and watch to see if sanctions are working, if the regime will start to
> > > unravel from within, well aware that wars are much easier to start than
> > to
> > > get out of.
>
> > > Follow Dan Murphy on Twitter.
>
> > > ------------------------------------
>
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