There has been a lot of discussion over the years, mostly by the kooks and nuts, about the collapse of the United States. It's always been great fodder for novels and movies, but no one really took any of that talk seriously…Until very recently.
Now, what could cause the collapse of the U.S? There are a number of possibilities, but the biggest one would be the collapse of the economic system. Basically, the United States goes bankrupt.
Another would be one or more states telling the Federal Government to go pound sand and essentially, (If not practically), seceding from the Union.
Lets take a look at the first one shall we? The economic collapse of the US. To begin with, I am not an expert in economics, just a guy who has to keep a household budget. I know that if I spend more then I take in I'm going to be in a world of hurt real quick.
The United States has been spending more money then it takes in for nearly a century. The ball really took off under the Roosevelt administration with his New Deal fiasco. The next major spending spree was under the Johnson Administration with his Great Society disaster.
The second problem is the massive over-regulation of the American economy. This began under Teddy Roosevelt and was greatly expanded under the Franklin Delano Roosevelt administration. The FDR administration used the Commerce Clause to essentially take total control of the US economy.
This was a complete reversal of the generally accepted view of the Clause, which was meant to insure the smooth flow of goods between the states. Under FDR it became a means to exercise totalitarian control of the economy, to the detriment of the nation. (See the forgotten man)
What is generally not known, since it isn't taught, is that the economy in the United States was a lot worse then in the rest of the world. Not that the rest of the world was doing well, but they were recovering by the mid '30′s. Because of the policies of the Roosevelt administration, the United States went into an even deeper depression instead, and it wasn't ended until WW2.
Since the Roosevelt administration, both parties have been spending like there was no tomorrow, however the Democrat party was by far the worst offender. The Republican party and least had some clues on economics since a large segment came from the private sector. With the collapse of the USSR and the end of the Cold War, both parties thought that cutting the military would be a great idea. The problem was the Democrats under William Jefferson Clinton basically gutted the military.
The other problem is the Liberal/Progressive idea that all money belongs to the government and that taxes have no effect on economic development. With this idea along with the Democrats tendency to regulate all aspects of American life, the Democrats passed what was then the largest tax increase in U.S. History.
The result was the blowout of the Democrats from Congress.
When that happened Clinton was forced to move to the center and the results were a massive increase in the economy.
In 2000, George W. Bush became president. I won't go into the various controversies of his election, other can do that.
When Bush came in he looked around and saw what a disaster our military had become. So he started to rebuild. He also indulged in his inner RINO and started ramping up spending and regulations to the detriment of the nation.
The Islamic terror attack on September 11, 2001 threw a big wrench into Bush's plans. Overnight nearly a trillion dollars was knocked out of the economy. Bush understood that tax cuts were needed to allow the economy the liquidity it needed to repair its self. He was able to push through a series of tax cuts, however the Democrats demanded that they only be good for 10 years, and then expire in December 2010.
Bush agreed to this and the tax cuts did their job. Unfortunately, he also let the Republican Congress under Tom Delay and then Dennis Hastert spend valuable tax money on useless projects. The upshot of all this corruption was the takeover of the house and senate by the Democrats in 2006.
Bush also saw a problem coming with the housing mortgage industry, specifically Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Several times he tried to get some sort of fix in but was stymied every time by the likes of Barney Frank, Christopher Dodd, Maxine Waters and other hard left democrats. At the time no one understood that the Democrats were using these two entities as their personal piggy banks.
In late 2007 the economy started to fail. I was personally out of work for most of 2008. In the summer of 2008 fuel prices suddenly took off for no good reason. Gas hit $4usd/gal and people had to make decisions on being able to get to work or paying the mortgage and credit cards.
By late 2008 the housing bubble popped and the economy basically crashed. General Motors and Chrysler were pretty much bankrupt. Ford had been dealing with its problems and had been able prepare its self for the downturn.
Several investment companies failed and the U.S. treasury began cooking up a deal to "fix things." The fixes involved bailouts of some companies that didn't deserve them, (Not that ANY did), and the forced sale/liquidation of others. Amazingly, the companies that the bailouts seemed to help were those with senior managers doing "Public Service" in the U.S. Government.
In November 2008 Barack Obama was elected the next President.
When he took office, things were bad, Once Obama settled in, he made things worse. A more incompetent and narcissistic president would be hard to find. Obama with the help of Speaker of the house Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid opened the taps on the treasury and spent trillions of dollars we don't have. The American people told them to stop, but they would not listen. The general theme in Washington was "You are to ignorant to understand what wonderful things the Democrats were doing for you."
With all the spending on bogus "stimulus" packages and phoney "Shovel ready" jobs programs, real jobs began disappearing at a frightening rate. Obama and the Democrats said that without all the spending, the unemployment rate would go over 8%. It's now at 9.5% and in some areas over 25%.
In midsummer, people realized that the Bush tax cuts were due to expire and it suddenly set in that taxes for everyone were about to go through the roof. Of course the Obama administration, in typical progressive style, refuses to understand that if a company has no money it isn't going to hire people.
Now, the Democrats are looking at losing both the house and potentially the senate in this election cycle. They are desperate to ram through as much of their agenda as they can irregardless of the wishes of the American people. It has reached the point of self delusion.
Now, the economic collapse.
If it happens, it will probably occur either in late 2011 or in 2012. What might happen? To begin with, no one will buy the bonds the United States sells in order to pay for all the programs both parties have created. This means we might monetize the debt. What is involved in monetizing the debt? Simple. The United States will start printing money. In other words, they will inflate the economy and reduce the value of people's savings. The worst case scenario is what's happened in the Wiemar Republic and is now happening in Zimbabwe. You money is not worth the paper its printed on.
This will start a vicious circle. Companies won't be able to buy inventory and people won't be able to buy their product. Prices will skyrocket. Unemployment will shoot through the roof as business fail. The social programs that the Progressives and their RINO friends love so much? They won't be able to pay for them and will literally have no choice but to shut them down.
Another option is the United States simply repudiates the debt. This means they tell all the debt holders, like China, that "Sorry, we're bankrupt and we ain't paying you back. Have a nice day!" If that happens, we're looking at a probable global depression.
In the United States, you would probably see states that had done their best to keep their fiscal houses in order breaking away from the federal government and issuing their own currency. More then likely these states may band together. It will not be a good time. In order to survive, they would probably end all the welfare payments and tell people to get to work. Those that don't would either starve or be forced to leave.
For the states that are on fiscal "Death's Door" so to speak, we're probably looking at total and complete collapse as the haves flee and the have nots do what they always do. Riot and make demands.
These states are governed by some of the most incompetent and useless morons in existence. They are the ones who ran their states into the ground and are absolutely terrified of the thought that they might actually have to work. As their states start spiraling down, they will start confiscating every penny they can get to maintain their sinecures. Once they finally fail, more then likely they will flee to another country or get lynched. This will also include some of the more left wing city governments as well.
In this scenario, you will see a death toll approaching millions. The states that have natural resources and the ability to develop them, will probably make it. Those states with no resources or states that do not have the will to develop them, will quickly slide into total chaos.
My guess is Texas, Ohio and most of the southern states will pull through. States that are doomed? New York, California, Hawaii, etc.
Now the second possible way the United States could collapse is states literally seceding from the Union ala the old Confederacy.
Why would a state pull out of the Union? The simple reason is a federal government that has become, for all intents and purposes, authoritarian/totalitarian and no longer respecting states rights. We are extremely close to that point now, and may reach it a lot sooner then we do an economic collapse.
What is bringing this on is Arizona's recent new anti-illegal immigration law, S.B. 1070. This law basically makes a federal law enforceable at the state level. This law is very popular among Americans, but is hated by the Political class. (Democrats and RINO's) Obama has ordered Attorney General Eric Holder to sue Arizona to have the law overturned.
Most honest legal scholars believe the law is constitutional. The problem is that the case was heard in front of a Clinton Appointed left wing judge. This progressive rump swab, Judge Susan Bolton, ruled the main part of the law was unconstitutional. She demonstrated that she doesn't care what the constitution actually says on the matter, nor does she care what is happening on the border.
This ruling caused writer Jeffrey Kuhner to opine in the Washington Times to suggest that Arizona should:
"stand on the bedrock principles of states' rights and democratic self-government and insist that S.B. 1070 go into effect despite the federal ban. This would set up a constitutional showdown between Mrs. Brewer and Mr. Obama, Arizona and Washington. What would the Justice Department do: carry Mrs. Brewer off in handcuffs and throw her in prison? In other words, the people of Arizona should engage in peaceful civil disobedience."
Mr. Kuhner goes on to say,
"In the future, many states – including Arizona – may decide they have no other option but to break away from the union. The choice is becoming starkly apparent: devolution or dissolution."
I doubt that the Arizona government is quite ready to make that announcement. However, the Obama administration has demonstrated it's utter and complete contempt for the Constitution, the rule of law or anything other then turning this nation into a socialist country.
The BP oil well blowout in the Gulf of Mexico loudly showed just how bad Washington has become. To begin with, it appears that the rig sank due to excessive amounts of water poured on it. This caused the pipe to the cutoff valve to rip out and finish off the valve. As of this posting, the investigation/coverup is ongoing.
After the oil started pouring out. BP and the gulf states started looking to Washington to get skimmer boats in, barriers up and to start burning the oil, all meant to minimize the environmental damage. Instead the Obama administration blocked foreign nations from coming in with personnel and equipment to help clean up the mess. They did this as a bone to their Union supporters who have bought and paid for the Democrats in office.
When the oil started approaching the shores of Louisiana, Governor Jindal started asking for for booms to be laid down and sand berms to be built to keep the oil from reaching shore. Instead the Environmental Protection Agency ordered all berms and booms to be stopped until the impact of using them could be determined. The Coast Guard was offered booms from a company in Maine, but turned them down as "Not meeting standards." It turned out they not only met standards, they surpassed them.
The Coast Guard also ordered a number of skimmer barges that Louisiana had deployed back into port because they didn't have enough life jackets and fire extinguishers on board. What they could have done was tell them to get this stuff when they came into port after skimming up the oil or bringing out the equipment for them.
These and other things the Obama administration did caused Governor Jindal to blow his stack. He was so angry at what Washington was doing that he almost ordered the berms to be built and the boats back out and to hell with what the EPA and the Coast Guard said. Governor Jindal has been ripping into Obama and the Federal government ever since.
In Texas, the EPA has ordered a fair chunk of the oil industry to shut down "Because they don't meet Federal air quality standards." The Feds have also tried to shut down all oil production in the Gulf and also are denying permits to coal mines. The upshot of all this will be at least a 1-2 point increase in the unemployment rate.
It's beginning to look like these rules and regulations are being done to wreck the economy and then allow Obama to declare "Emergency measures" and rule by decree. Paranoid? This too is starting to come into the main stream from the fringes.
All of these actions may cause states to start reasserting their 10th amendment rights and stop following the diktats from Washington. Of course, the Obama administration along with the political class could not abide this and would start moving to suppress the states, possibly even arresting the governor(s) and imposing martial law.
That would be the trigger for a full blown succession movement and in all probability the start of the second American Civil war. If that occurs, the odds of the "rebels" getting and using a nuke are near 100%. Bye bye Washington if that happens.
The United States in now at a moment in time that hasn't been seen since 1860. The nation is split so badly that there is no middle ground. We have a government that is totally unresponsive to the people and is actually a threat to the freedoms, liberty and economic health of America.
Can this be turned around? Yes, but it will require drastic action and leadership that the current crop of idiots doesn't posses. Frankly, I don't see anyone on the national level who could come in and clear out the swamp that is the Federal Government. It is possible that a Constitutional Convention may be called for the first time since the original one over 200 years ago. This would open another can of worms, but it might just throw the fear of God into the political class and and force them to return to our foundations.
Honestly? I don't see this happening.
Of the two scenarios I've listed, I think it will be the collapse of the economy that will happen. God help us all.
